Interest rates

House prices in Sydney could fall by up to 4% per month

The pace of falling prices also accelerated in Melbourne, where home values ​​fell 1.5% during the month.

Brisbane fell 0.8%, Canberra 1.1% and Hobart 1.5%. Nationally, house prices fell 1.3% over the same period.

While Adelaide, Perth and Darwin managed to post modest gains, their monthly growth rate slowed significantly, said CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless.

“The expected rate is rising this week and the coming months will put further downward pressure on housing prices,” Lawless said.

“The rapid rate of price decline is a clear sign that the housing market is very sensitive to the rising cost of debt, which I think reflects the level of household indebtedness.

“The combination of higher interest rates and very high inflation is also impacting household balance sheets, contributing to very low sentiment which we know is strongly correlated with housing market demand. .”

In the three months to June, house prices in Sydney fell by 4.7%, Melbourne by 3.2%, Hobart by 1.3% and Canberra by 0.9%.

Adelaide was the best performing market in the quarter with a 3.6% increase in median home value, followed by Darwin with a 1.9% increase and Perth gaining 1.2%.

At their peaks, prices in Sydney rose 9.3% over three months, Melbourne rose 5.8%, Brisbane 8.5%, Adelaide 7.4% and Perth 7.7%.

The expected jump in listings in the final quarter of the year, which will coincide with the sharp rise in interest rates, would pose a significant price risk, Lawless said.

“We are likely to see the biggest rate of price decline towards the end of the year, as interest rates would have risen by at least 1.5 percentage points by then,” he said. he declares.

“We typically see a peak in the flow of new listings into the market in the spring as well, which will give buyers more choice and may induce sellers to lower their asking prices even further.”

Dr Oliver agreed that the housing market is likely to see the worst later this year in terms of downward momentum, but there was a risk that the RBA could take rates over 2.5%.

“If the RBA continues to hit 3.5% as predicted by money markets and some economists, we could see these price drops peak next year,” he said.